Australia: RBA still expected to hike 25 bps after soft employment data – ANZ

Australia’s Employment Change rose less than expected. Nonetheless, economists at ANZ Bank still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a 25 basis points rate hike next month.

Labour market stalls in September

“The September labour market data were softer than expected but support the view that a 25 bps cash rate hike by the RBA is the most likely outcome in November, even if there is an upside surprise in the Q3 CPI on Wednesday.”

“A softer labour market also increases the likelihood of a December pause by the RBA, but the Q3 CPI data will be an important factor here.” 

“We still think there is room for the labour market to improve. While leading indicators have started to ease, they remain extremely high relative to pre-pandemic levels. And the share of businesses reporting labour as a constraint on output increased 2ppt to 91% in Q3, according to NAB’s business survey).”