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3 May 2023

USD/JPY plunges more than 1%, below 136.00 amidst the uncertainty of the FOMC’s decision

  • US private hiring surged above estimates; the USD/JPY seesawed but later slipped.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbs in April, despite hiring moderation.
  • Traders focus on the US Federal Reserve decision and Powell’s press conference.

The USD/JPY tumbled for the second day in a row, influenced by the fall in the US 10-year Treasury bond yield amidst a mixed market sentiment spurred by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision looming. Therefore, US Treasury bond yields are falling, particularly the 10-year, which correlates closely to the USD/JPY pair. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, losing 1.03%.

USD/JPY pressured on falling US bond yields, risk-off mood

US equities are fluctuating ahead of the Fed’s decision. The US ADP Employment Change report, which reveals how private hiring is going in the country, jumped surprisingly by 296K exceeding estimates of 148K and March’s data of 142K. In addition, data showed that albeit hiring rose, wages cooled down from 14.2% to 13.2%, according to the ADP Research Institute report.

After the report, the USD/JPY edged towards 136.00 before making a U-Turn and plunged 60 pips, towards the 135.40 area, before extending its losses.

Of late, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in April climbed to 51.9 from 51.2 in March, as shown by data. The report showed that a measure of prices paid held close to its lowest level while hiring moderated.

Due to its Golden Week holidays, an absent Japanese economic agenda keeps investors leaning toward US Dollar (USD) dynamics and market sentiment.

The Federal Reserve would unveil its decision ahead of the session, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference, which USD/JPY traders widely expect.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY daily chart portrays the pair as neutral to downward biased after failing to crack the March 8 high of 137.91, exacerbating a fall below the 200-day SMA at 137.43. In addition, a dark-cloud cover candlestick chart pattern, formed during the last two previous days from today, opened the door for the 1% plus drop, with sellers testing previous the April 19 swing high at 135.14; previous resistance turned support. A breach of the latter will expose 135.00, followed by the 20-day SMA at 134.17. Conversely, if USD/JPY buyers hold the spot above April 19 high, the pair could rally to the 136.00 figure.

 

May 3, 2023

EUR/USD could move back to 1.06 in the second half of this year – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank see risk of a move lower in EUR/USD in the latter half of this year. USD likely to find support if the market prices out 2023 r
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