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31 May 2023

When is the Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian GDP overview

Wednesday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for March, due to be published at 12:30 GMT. Statistics Canada will also release the quarterly growth figures, making this more significant than the ones including only monthly data. Consensus estimates suggest that the economy contracted by 0.1% during the reported month and registered a 0.4% growth in the first quarter of 2023. On an annualized basis, the economy is anticipated to have expanded by 2.9%.

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the key macro release, the USD/CAD pair scales higher for the second successive day and climbs closer to the monthly peak touched last week. Crude Oil prices add to the overnight steep losses and dive to a fresh multi-week low on Wednesday, which, in turn, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the major. A softer Canadian GDP print could exert additional downward pressure on the domestic currency and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move for the major.

The market reaction to a stronger reading, meanwhile, is likely to be limited amid resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer. This, along with worries about a global economic slowdown, might continue to drive some haven flows towards the buck and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. Hence, any intraday downtick might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned, for the time being.

Key Notes

  •   USD/CAD climbs to mid-1.3600s, eyes monthly top ahead of Canadian GDP/US macro data

  •   USD/CAD Outlook: Move beyond mid-1.3600s to set the stage for further gains

  •   USD/CAD: Loonie to benefit at best moderately on significant Canadian GDP data surprise – Commerzbank

About the Canadian GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.

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