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20 May 2013
Recent technical break in AUD/USD amplifies downside risk – NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Aussie has been under massive selling pressure in recent weeks, dropping just over 900 pips over the course of the previous two weeks and breaking some important technical levels in the process.
According to analysts at NAB Global Markets, “the proximate cause of the downside range break in AUD/USD (on 9 May) was not the somewhat unexpected RBA rate cut on the previous Tuesday, but rather broad-based US gains driven by rising US Treasury yields. The break below the 1.0115 low of the past ten months ironically came on the day that the local labour market report showed a 50,000 rise in employment in April and as a result of which expectations for an early follow-up to the May RBA rate cut were scaled back (from above 75% by July to around 25% now).”
They went on to add, “as long as 10 year Treasury yields hold beneath the recent range highs (2.06%) we are not rushing to revise our current AUD forecast radically lower after the modest downward revision made a week ago and which now has AUD/USD holding near parity through mid-year and down to 0.98 by year end. However the risks to this view are formidable. If Treasury yields break higher, we’d expect that will be the macro/fundamental catalyst for a deeper sell off. Friday’s break through the technically significant 0.9850 level (the 200 week moving average as well as important trend line support drawn from the 0.9388 low from October 2011), has certainly amplified the risk to the downside.”
According to analysts at NAB Global Markets, “the proximate cause of the downside range break in AUD/USD (on 9 May) was not the somewhat unexpected RBA rate cut on the previous Tuesday, but rather broad-based US gains driven by rising US Treasury yields. The break below the 1.0115 low of the past ten months ironically came on the day that the local labour market report showed a 50,000 rise in employment in April and as a result of which expectations for an early follow-up to the May RBA rate cut were scaled back (from above 75% by July to around 25% now).”
They went on to add, “as long as 10 year Treasury yields hold beneath the recent range highs (2.06%) we are not rushing to revise our current AUD forecast radically lower after the modest downward revision made a week ago and which now has AUD/USD holding near parity through mid-year and down to 0.98 by year end. However the risks to this view are formidable. If Treasury yields break higher, we’d expect that will be the macro/fundamental catalyst for a deeper sell off. Friday’s break through the technically significant 0.9850 level (the 200 week moving average as well as important trend line support drawn from the 0.9388 low from October 2011), has certainly amplified the risk to the downside.”