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17 Jan 2024

GBP/JPY climbs back into 186.00 on UK labor figures, deflating Yen

  • GBP/JPY briefly hit multi-week highs at 186.19.
  • UK labor figures showed an uptick in new jobs while unemployment held steady.
  • Japanese Yen sees declines across the board on Tuesday.

GBP/JPY briefly ticked into a new multi-week high above the 186.00 handle on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) saw broad-market declines and the Pound Sterling (GBP) caught a brief ride up the charts after UK labor figures showed more jobs added in December than the previous month.

The UK’s Claimant Count change showed 11.7K new jobless benefits seekers in December, but November’s initial print of 16K saw a steep revision down to just 600. UK Claimant Count Change is notorious for seeing late revisions after-the-fact, and markets will be looking for a similar downside revision to December’s figure when January’s unemployment claims figures are released.

Average Hourly Earnings Including Bonuses eased more than expected, printing at 6.5% for the quarter ended in November, below the forecast 6.8% and easing further back from the previous quarter’s 7.2%.

The UK Employment Change also jumped to a six-month high of 73K in November, compared to October’s 50K, with the UK adding the highest amount of net job gains since last July’s 102K.

Pacific market participants will want to keep an eye out for China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures all due early Wednesday at 02:00 GMT. The UK also sees a second round of GBP data with UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures and Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the Retail Price Index.

UK CPI for December is expected to rebound from -0.2% to 0.2%, and the Retail Price Index is forecast to increase from -0.1% to 0.4% MoM for the same period. The non-seasonally-adjusted PPI - Output for the year ended December is expected to also increase from -0.2% to 0.4%.

GBP/JPY Technical Outlook

The GBP/JPY continues to trade into the high end as broad-market Yen selling forces down the JPY, keeping the Guppy buoyed at near-term highs near 186.00.

The 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) is straining to keep up with near-term bidding pressure, currently rising through 184.50, and intraday bids haven’t touched the moving average since crossing the key level since early January.

A bullish rejection of the 200-day SMA crystallized in January, and daily candlesticks have the GBP/JPY bidding above the 50-day SMA near the 184.00 handle.

GBP/JPY Hourly Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

 

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AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Registers modest losses, but remains upward biased as hammer emerges

The AUD/JPY printed modest losses on Tuesday, as risk appetite took its toll as worldwide central bank policymakers pushed back against rate cut expectations.
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AUD/USD drops below 0.6600 ahead of the Chinese economic data

The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day during the early Asian session on Wednesday.
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