EUR: Dovish ECB could weigh on EUR/USD – ING

It is a busy day for the European calendar dominated by GDP releases and the ECB meeting. France has just released a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP reading of -0.1% QoQ. Consumption and business investment were the weak links, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Downside risks to EUR/USD are evident

"Remember, the threat of trade tariffs is normally a negative for business investment – something the IMF has modelled. Let's see how the German and Italian numbers fare at 10CET and then the provisional eurozone release at 11CET. Here the consensus for eurozone fourth-quarter growth currently stands at 0.1% QoQ, with seemingly downside risks."

"Today's main event, however, is the ECB meeting – rate announcement 1415CET. A 25bp cut in the deposit rate to 2.75% is nailed on and instead the focus will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. We see some downside risks if the market believes there is a chance of the ECB taking policy below neutral."

"EUR/USD should be driven by events in Europe today, with a slight bias to the 1.0345/55 area should Lagarde sound quite dovish."