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2 Mar 2015
More downside risks to US Note futures – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Desk, expects any upside surprise in US core PCE to push US Note futures lower, and views that the dovish positioning for rate hikes increases the downside risks further.
Key Quotes
“In the US, risks to the manufacturing ISM remain on the downside of expectations. However, the core PCE reading will grab most attention. An upward surprise, like last week’s core CPI, won’t pass unnoticed and might push the US Note future lower in the 126-12 to 128-04+ trading range!”
“All in all, the market reaction to the data should be symmetrical with upward pressure in case of weaker numbers and vice versa.”
“Technically, we expect the mentioned sideways range to hold going into the payrolls.”
“Longer term, we hold our June rate hike call and think there is more downside in the Note future as markets are positioned more dovish.”
Key Quotes
“In the US, risks to the manufacturing ISM remain on the downside of expectations. However, the core PCE reading will grab most attention. An upward surprise, like last week’s core CPI, won’t pass unnoticed and might push the US Note future lower in the 126-12 to 128-04+ trading range!”
“All in all, the market reaction to the data should be symmetrical with upward pressure in case of weaker numbers and vice versa.”
“Technically, we expect the mentioned sideways range to hold going into the payrolls.”
“Longer term, we hold our June rate hike call and think there is more downside in the Note future as markets are positioned more dovish.”