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2 Mar 2015
Preview: Central bank decisions this week – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Tim Davis, Vice President at TD Securities, previews the central bank meetings and rate decisions this week.
Key Quotes
“On Wednesday, the BoC, NBP and BCB rate decisions are announced. The BoC meeting is also a very close decision and following Governor Poloz’s speech last week we look for the BoC to keep rates on hold but believe that the call is tantamount to a coin toss.”
“In Poland, today’s PMI suggests robust economic activity ahead of the NBP decision on Wednesday. We expect the MPC to cut the policy rate 25bp to 1.75% on the back of deepening and continuing deflation. However, Chojna-Duch, the swing voter on the MPC, has sounded uncertain in recent interviews as to how she will vote, so the possibility of no rate change cannot be ruled out, but a 50bp cut seems more likely to us than no cut at all.”
“In Brazil we expect the Selic rate to be hiked by 50bp to 12.75%, in line with consensus, on untamed CPI pressures. But the fact that we now see the Selic rate at 13.25% by the end of the tightening cycle also means that we see the possibility of rates cuts earlier than we had previously expected, which we expect to start early in 2016 or by end-2015 (-125bp in total).”
“The ECB and BoE both meet on Thursday, with neither expected to announce any change to policy although the ECB should announce more operational details regarding their asset purchases or a more specific date for when they expect purchases to actually begin.”
“Also on Thursday, in Malaysia we expect BNM to keep the Overnight Policy Rate on hold at 3.25%. This is in line with the unanimous consensus estimate.”
Key Quotes
“On Wednesday, the BoC, NBP and BCB rate decisions are announced. The BoC meeting is also a very close decision and following Governor Poloz’s speech last week we look for the BoC to keep rates on hold but believe that the call is tantamount to a coin toss.”
“In Poland, today’s PMI suggests robust economic activity ahead of the NBP decision on Wednesday. We expect the MPC to cut the policy rate 25bp to 1.75% on the back of deepening and continuing deflation. However, Chojna-Duch, the swing voter on the MPC, has sounded uncertain in recent interviews as to how she will vote, so the possibility of no rate change cannot be ruled out, but a 50bp cut seems more likely to us than no cut at all.”
“In Brazil we expect the Selic rate to be hiked by 50bp to 12.75%, in line with consensus, on untamed CPI pressures. But the fact that we now see the Selic rate at 13.25% by the end of the tightening cycle also means that we see the possibility of rates cuts earlier than we had previously expected, which we expect to start early in 2016 or by end-2015 (-125bp in total).”
“The ECB and BoE both meet on Thursday, with neither expected to announce any change to policy although the ECB should announce more operational details regarding their asset purchases or a more specific date for when they expect purchases to actually begin.”
“Also on Thursday, in Malaysia we expect BNM to keep the Overnight Policy Rate on hold at 3.25%. This is in line with the unanimous consensus estimate.”