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2 Oct 2013
Flash: DXY to stay trendless in coming quarters - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The dollar index will remain trendless in coming quarters, according to John Normand and Meera Chandan, FX Strategists at JP Morgan Securities.
Key Quotes
"If indeed the dollar's move has been cyclical rather than structural, and if we are right that cyclical supports for the dollar fade as non-US economies revive, the dollar will only rally versus a handful of currencies in coming quarters – those where the central bank is still easing (JPY, AUD, CLP) or those with large/worsening imbalances (BRL, IDR, TRY, ZAR, MYR)."
"The dollar should be stable to lower against currencies of countries where growth is firm (EUR, GBP) or likely to firm (CAD, MXN, Scandis). These bottom-up projections aggregate into a trendless USD index, which may sound strange when US rates are normalising but in fact isn’t much different from the historical pattern."
Key Quotes
"If indeed the dollar's move has been cyclical rather than structural, and if we are right that cyclical supports for the dollar fade as non-US economies revive, the dollar will only rally versus a handful of currencies in coming quarters – those where the central bank is still easing (JPY, AUD, CLP) or those with large/worsening imbalances (BRL, IDR, TRY, ZAR, MYR)."
"The dollar should be stable to lower against currencies of countries where growth is firm (EUR, GBP) or likely to firm (CAD, MXN, Scandis). These bottom-up projections aggregate into a trendless USD index, which may sound strange when US rates are normalising but in fact isn’t much different from the historical pattern."