UK: EU referendum results guide – RBC CM

Sam Hill, Senior UK Economist at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that on EU referendum results night the bulk of the declarations in 382 local counting areas are expected between 3-5am BST.

Key Quotes

“Although it is thought the broadcasters won’t publish exit polls, news from any privately commissioned exit polls may influence markets sometime before many of the votes are counted.

The UK’s referendum on EU membership is now less than two weeks away, so it is time to look ahead to the timetable for results night. Unless the opinion polls make a decisive move away from near 50/50 in the next few days, it looks as though markets could be genuinely torn on the outcome as voters go to the polls. This sets the scene for a potentially volatile night as the results come in and investors and traders finally find out if it is to be ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’.

• On 23 June, the polls will be open from 7am until 10pm BST. The vote counting process will begin as soon as the polls close.

• Results will come in slowly at first; just 18 of 382 ‘local counting areas’ representing around 5% of voters are expected to have declared before 2am BST on 24 June.

• The busy period for results is expected to be between 3-5am BST at the end of which over three-quarters of the votes are anticipated to have been counted and declared.

• It is likely to be after 7am BST on 24 June when a final national result is confirmed, even if that eventual outcome may become apparent before that based on the early results.

Of course, it must be borne in mind that the estimated declaration times are indeed just estimates and could turn out to be very different in reality. Also, the voter registration data we used are from December 2015 but we think it is reasonable to assume that changes since then won’t have materially altered the relative weights between the 382 counting areas. Nevertheless, we stress this is just an indicative guide to the timing of the results based on the information available.”