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Tim Baker, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, expects increasing signs of Australian domestic weakness to outweigh a decent data flow in China and against the backdrop of Fed hikes, they expect the AUD/USD to hit 70c by year end.
Key Quotes
“Two days brings two different Chinese PMIs. Weakness in today’s Caixin PMI has weighed on the AUD, despite the more robust tone from yesterday’s official PMI. We make three observations:
“So where to for the AUD? We do expect downside in the second half of the year, but look for the drivers to emerge on the domestic side. Yesterday’s capex survey provided minimal hope for a rebound in non-mining capex next year. And while retail sales handily beat expectations (and pushed the AUD higher prior to the release of the China PMI), we still see weakness in the consumer. April’s firmer retail number followed two months of falls, and the equity market doesn’t believe the consumer is improving. Retailers’ valuations are at a decade-low relative to the market, and analysts have been cutting earnings forecasts.”