Analysts at TDS think the CBR will cut the key rate by 25bps today and this view amends their prior forecast for a 50bps cut in the July meeting.

Key Quotes

“As a consequence, we now expect two cuts of 25bps each in June and July, and a further 75bps of easing in the remainder of the year. Even if the median expectation is currently siding with our view, the consensus is more evenly split than it appears. Now, 21 economists anticipate a small 25bps cut vs 17 opting for a larger 50bps; only one is looking for a hold.”

“In our view, today’s decision is almost certain to be one between a cut of 25bps or 50bps, as CBR Governor Nabiullina quite explicitly mentioned last week. Neither a hold nor a cut larger than 50 bps seems to be an option. The Bank has so far held a very cautious stance even while easing, often positioning on the hawkish end of the expectation spectrum. This makes the 25bps cut a slightly more likely scenario at this stage.”