Will the ECB speak now or forever hold its strong EUR peace? - ING

"The key question for EUR markets this week is whether the ECB minutes will express any concerns about the impact of the strong exchange rate on the economy or inflation," explains Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING.

Key quotes:

"Back at the July ECB press conference, President Draghi talked about the exchange rate in terms of its impact on the financial conditions. Unless the ECB conveys serious concerns about the strength of EUR, any meaningful fallout in the single currency looks unlikely this week."

"We look for a somewhat wider trading range in EUR/USD around the 1.18 level this week. While both the July retail sales report (Tue) and industrial production data (Thu) should be US growth supportive, we doubt that decent activity data will be enough to drive EUR/USD materially lower. Doubts about the pace of additional Fed tightening - one of the factors weighing on the USD - stem more from weak US inflation concerns. We would probably need to see a revival in short-term inflationary pressures - something which last week's US data failed to convincingly show - before markets can positively re-price expectations for a third Fed rate hike later this year."

"In the Eurozone calendar this week, the main focus will be on the July ECB meeting minutes (Thu); any comments on tighter euro area financial conditions - and what this means for the central bank's inflation and growth outlook - could implicitly be seen as a concern over recent market moves. Elsewhere, German 2Q GDP (Tue) should confirm the strong EZ economic recovery. Overall, we think solid US data - and what may be perceived as ECB "jawboning" - should contain EUR/USD upside in the week ahead."