NZD/USD: headed to 0.7557 or back to 0.7280?

• NZD/USD: US dollar making a comeback.
• NZD/USD: looking ahead to Central Banks.

The bird ended last week down 0.23% at 0.7392 within a range between 0.7437-0.7378. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7377 with a high of 0.7382 and a low of 0.7374.

US Commerce Department recommends tariffs and/or quotas on steel and aluminium - ANZ

The focus remained on the US dollar last week that ended higher in NY by +0.46% with US 10-year yields pulling back from 2.91% to 2.87% but the  Fed fund futures yield was pricing in four rate hikes by end-2019. There was little in the way of fundamentals and it is going to be a quiet start in the week in the same respect given we have China out still and US President day. 

What and where next?

Looking ahead, however, focus will be on this week's FOMC minutes and in the background, economists will continue to assess what the next move might be from the RBNZ. "We think it is most likely that the RBNZ will remain on hold until late 2019,'  argued analysts at ANZ. "Of course, forecasting is an uncertain business, and we have warned that although an OCR cut this year is not likely, it remains a possibility. Indeed, given our views on GDP growth, we regard a cut in the OCR this year as more likely than a hike," the analysts added. 

NZD/USD levels

The bird is headed back to test the previous resistance line made up from 0.7436 (Jan 23rd high) 0.7419 (30th Jan high), and 0.7379 (13th Feb high).  The next key resistance, should this support level hold,  is the 0.7435/40 triple top level ahead of 0.7557, 21st July 2017 high. On a correction and a continuation of the dollar's come back, 0.7360 and 0.7330 guards 0.7280.