World trade on firm footing for now - ING

According to Raoul Leering, Head of International Trade Analysis at ING world trade made a strong start to 2018 with 0.9% growth in January even as Trump’s trade policy threatens to derail its current sustained recovery.

Key Quotes

“The World Trade Monitor published by CPB shows that imports were 0.9% higher in January than in the last month of last year. Imports demand rose across emerging economies and several advanced economies (exceptions were the US and Japan), showing that the favourable phase in world economic growth has continued to provide support for trade in early 2018.”

“We expect that if US import tariffs on Chinese goods are implemented, alongside the steel and aluminium tariffs which came into effect for a range of countries last night, the 3.7% expected  growth in world trade in 2018 will be approximately 0.3% points lower.”