IMF: Global expansion is becoming less even – Deutsche Bank

According to IMF’s latest Global Economic Outlook, while the Fund made no change to either its 2018 or 2019 global growth forecast of 3.9%, the accompanying statement did highlight that “the expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting”.

Key Quotes

“They went as far as to say that “the rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronised”. Indeed the country-by-country forecasts highlight the widening divergence between the US and other developed nations.”

“The 2.9% and 2.7% growth forecast for the US in 2018 and 2019 respectively was the same as the April forecast, however the Euro Area was revised down to 2.2% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, a downward revision of two-tenths and one-tenth.”

“Japan and the UK were also revised down two-tenths this year to 1.0% and 1.4% respectively although forecasts for next year were left unchanged. There were also no surprises for China (6.6% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019).”

“Unsurprisingly the looming trade war concerns were cited as the greatest risk with the IMF saying that “the risk that current trade tensions escalate further – with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment – is the greatest near-term threat to global growth”.”