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21 May 2014
EUR bears are not in full control yet - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - According to Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategist at JP Morgan Securities, EUR/USD still needs to overcome 1.3628 (200 DMA) and 1.3477 (2014 low), in order to confirm the trend reversal to bearish in EUR/USD.
Key Quotes
"Prospects of having reversed an almost 2 year long countertrend rally in EUR/USD at 1.3993 last week have improved significantly via the latest break below the April low at 1.3673. In order to get the big T-junction at 1.4259 (76.4 % on higher scale) off the radar screen and to confirm the broader downtrend though, it takes additional breaks below 1.3628 (200 DMA) and below 1.3477 (2014 low)."
"In the short run though and as long as the red lagging line is not displaying two consecutive lower daily closes (10pm CET) below the cloud (at 1.3685 today), we have to expect bounces which could extend to 1.3812 (daily breakout line) and to 1.3912 (minor 76.4 %). Only a decisive hourly close above the latter (i.e. above 1.3950) would re-open the upside for an extension to 1.4182 (monthly Ichimoku- lagging) and to 1.4259 whereas a break below 1.3477 would challenge 1.3382 and 1.3295 (weekly trend/Nov. low) next."
Key Quotes
"Prospects of having reversed an almost 2 year long countertrend rally in EUR/USD at 1.3993 last week have improved significantly via the latest break below the April low at 1.3673. In order to get the big T-junction at 1.4259 (76.4 % on higher scale) off the radar screen and to confirm the broader downtrend though, it takes additional breaks below 1.3628 (200 DMA) and below 1.3477 (2014 low)."
"In the short run though and as long as the red lagging line is not displaying two consecutive lower daily closes (10pm CET) below the cloud (at 1.3685 today), we have to expect bounces which could extend to 1.3812 (daily breakout line) and to 1.3912 (minor 76.4 %). Only a decisive hourly close above the latter (i.e. above 1.3950) would re-open the upside for an extension to 1.4182 (monthly Ichimoku- lagging) and to 1.4259 whereas a break below 1.3477 would challenge 1.3382 and 1.3295 (weekly trend/Nov. low) next."