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21 May 2014
Key risk events on Wednesday - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, walks us through what to expect the day ahead in the FX market.
Key Quotes
"Australia’s key data releases for the week are both today. At 10:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK it’s May consumer sentiment from Westpac and Melbourne Institute, quantifying the public response to the FY14/15 Budget and the various leaks ahead of its release. Media “source” stories suggest the RBA is placing considerable weight on the consumer’s response to the budget. The Apr headline was 99.7, compared to a 20 year average of 105.7."
"An hour later we will see the Q1 wage cost index, the RBA’s preferred wages measure. Consensus is for another 0.7% q/q reading, keeping the y/y rate at 2.6%, a low since this series began in 1998. Westpac however sees only a 0.5% rise, noting that the Q4 total was boosted by unexpected strength in public salaries (0.9%). A 0.5% headline would probably knock 20-30 pips off AUD/USD. An on-consensus reading would only reaffirm the commentary in the RBA minutes yesterday referring to “spare capacity in the labour market” keeping cost growth low."
"The Bank of Japan should be firmly on hold as its two day meeting concludes today. The announcement should be any time from about 12:30pm Syd/10:30am Sing/HK, with the Kuroda press conference set for 4:30pm Syd. Japan also releases April trade data, with the weak yen expected to fail to prevent another deficit; Japan has not printed a surplus since the 2011 tsunami."
"There is plenty of event risk for sterling. At the same time (4:30pm Sing/HK) we see the BoE MPC meeting minutes plus UK Apr retail sales, with consensus an optimistic 0.5% m/m, 5.4% y/y ex-autos. We will hear lots more from Fed officials: Dudley (centrist/dove), George (hawk) and Kocherlakota (dove) on the economy and monetary policy plus Yellen delivering a commencement speech at NYU, which presumably won’t focus on short term policy. The minutes from the FOMC’s April 29-30 meeting are also due. USD risks on FOMC minutes are usually to the upside, given the prominence of non-voting hawks in the outlook for rates."
Key Quotes
"Australia’s key data releases for the week are both today. At 10:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK it’s May consumer sentiment from Westpac and Melbourne Institute, quantifying the public response to the FY14/15 Budget and the various leaks ahead of its release. Media “source” stories suggest the RBA is placing considerable weight on the consumer’s response to the budget. The Apr headline was 99.7, compared to a 20 year average of 105.7."
"An hour later we will see the Q1 wage cost index, the RBA’s preferred wages measure. Consensus is for another 0.7% q/q reading, keeping the y/y rate at 2.6%, a low since this series began in 1998. Westpac however sees only a 0.5% rise, noting that the Q4 total was boosted by unexpected strength in public salaries (0.9%). A 0.5% headline would probably knock 20-30 pips off AUD/USD. An on-consensus reading would only reaffirm the commentary in the RBA minutes yesterday referring to “spare capacity in the labour market” keeping cost growth low."
"The Bank of Japan should be firmly on hold as its two day meeting concludes today. The announcement should be any time from about 12:30pm Syd/10:30am Sing/HK, with the Kuroda press conference set for 4:30pm Syd. Japan also releases April trade data, with the weak yen expected to fail to prevent another deficit; Japan has not printed a surplus since the 2011 tsunami."
"There is plenty of event risk for sterling. At the same time (4:30pm Sing/HK) we see the BoE MPC meeting minutes plus UK Apr retail sales, with consensus an optimistic 0.5% m/m, 5.4% y/y ex-autos. We will hear lots more from Fed officials: Dudley (centrist/dove), George (hawk) and Kocherlakota (dove) on the economy and monetary policy plus Yellen delivering a commencement speech at NYU, which presumably won’t focus on short term policy. The minutes from the FOMC’s April 29-30 meeting are also due. USD risks on FOMC minutes are usually to the upside, given the prominence of non-voting hawks in the outlook for rates."