Markets: What is most important in the week ahead? – Nordea Markets

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, Euro area growth is expected to pick up gradually in H2 by the ECB, and the weak EUR and a turnaround in M1 do point in that direction.

Key Quotes

“On Monday, we expect another setback in the Ifo, as that’s suggested by our models as well as by the ZEW survey. Incidentally, Ifo momentum currently suggests German industrial production will keep shrinking at an annual pace of 2% – no relief for the ECB here.”

“The recent plunge in the Fed’s Empire state survey and in the Philly Fed suggests that broader US manufacturing sentiment may have deteriorated MUCH further. ISM manufacturing could be heading below ~50 tout de suite. Thankfully, one swallow does not a summer make. We’ll see if the Richmond Fed survey (25 June) and the Kansas Fed survey (27 June) corroborate the negative story told by the Empire, Philly and Dallas surveys.”

“Iran has announced it will start breaking the nuclear deal on 27 June. US has furthermore alleged that Iran attacked tanker ships with mines and sent more troops to the region, while Germany’s and France’s foreign ministers have warned that a new war can’t be ruled out.”

“Euro-area HICP inflation for June will be unveiled 28 June. Core inflation disappointed both us and the consensus in May. If the June numbers compensate for this undershoot, we could get a number as high as 0.9%. If they do not and the usual seasonal pattern plays out, we could get a 0.8% figure. To be honest, either outcome is unlikely to matter much.”

“Finally, there’s that G-20 meeting in Osaka on 28-29 June. Not only will China’s Xi Jinping meet with North Korea’s little Rocket Man, he’s scheduled for a private meeting with the Donald.”