• USD/CAD drops to a three-week low, also below 4H 200MA.
• Bearish MACD highlights 50% Fibonacci retracement as next support.

With the clear break below the key moving average (MA), USD/CAD takes the rounds to three-week low while trading near 1.3225 amid initial Asian session on Thursday.

Pair’s sustained trading below 200-bar simple moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 200MA) and bearish signal by 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) favor further downside to 50% Fibonacci retracement of July month swing low to current month swing high, around 1.3200.

Although prices are less likely to decline below 1.3200 mark, mainly due to expected pullback after a heavy downpour, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3156 and July 19 top surrounding 1.3110 could please sellers during additional south-run.

In a case where the quote takes a U-turn and pierces 4H 200MA level of 1.3250, the pullback can take aim at 1.3300/3295 area including 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

It should additionally be noted that pair’s run-up beyond 1.3300 enables it to confront multiple resistances around 1.3245/50 in order to flash fresh monthly top beyond the recently registered 1.3384.

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Trend: bearish