AUD/USD: Near term outlook looks positive for the aussie – CitiBank

Analysts at Citibank forecast AUD/USD at 0.72 over the next three months and at 0.73 in the next six to twelve months. They point out risks to the Australian dollar are fat-tailed (second wave risks, health disappointment, US election), with particular worry placed on the evolution of US/China relations.

Key Quotes:

“Near term the outlook of AUD looks more positive as the combination of monetary and fiscal ease along with positive economic deltas has helped risk assets recover. Besides, we have revised up our 2020 year average GDP forecast to -3.2%. However, risks to AUD are fat tailed (second wave risks, health disappointment, US election), with particular worry placed on the evolution of US/China relations.”

“For AUDUSD, the 0.6977 – 0.7040 area is proving difficult to break on the upside while a close below 0.6924 would likely complete a bearish outside day suggesting a possible extension towards the trend line at 0.6858 followed by 0.6770.”