Forex: EUR/USD rally reaches 1.3150 with US confidence at 2013 highs

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD keeps on moving higher and its rally has reached 1.3150 already as investors prepare themselves for tomorrow’s FOMC, Thursday’s tight ECB decision and Friday’s US NFP report. The Conference Board has reported a much better than expected consumer confidence in April, with an improvement from 61.9 (revised from 59.7) to 68.1, instead of a move to 60.8 as expected. Confidence is at its highest in 2013, above February’s figure of 68.0.

The April Chicago PMI has dropped below the 50.0 threshold, from 52.4 to 49.0, instead of rising to 52.5 as expected. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices, housing prices have risen by 9.3% in February, beating market consensus of 9.0% and increasing the rising pace from last month’s 8.1%.

There are extra 4K unemployed in Germany in April, instead of the expected 2K, but the unemployment rate remains at 6.9%. German retail sales are already out, down -0.3% in March (MoM) to an annualized drop from -2.6% to -2.8%, lower than market consensus of 0.0% (MoM) and -1.2% (YoY). The German GfK May consumer confidence rose from 6.0 to 6.2, beating 5.9 consensus.

“The EUR/USD has broken its short-term declining trendline and is now challenging the resistance at 1.3129 (19/04/2013 high). Another resistance can be found at 1.3202 (16/04/2013 high). An hourly support is at 1.3032 (intraday low). Another support lies at 1.2962 (08/04/2013 low)”, wrote MIG Bank analysts Bijoy Kar and Luc Luyet.