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30 Jul 2014
German Flash HICP expected to decelerate to 0.8% Y/Y in July - TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities predicts that year-on-year German HICP, due out later today, will slow down to 0.8/5 from 1% in July, although there are upside risks.
Key quotes
“Energy base effects should be the principal driver, but pump prices were still up on the month and may slightly moderate the impact.”
“With the ECB clearly in wait-and-see mode into year-end with TLTROs and the AQR to come, this small surprise should do nothing to change the policy biases, and we are cautious about our upside risk as inflation surprises have been absent for quite some time.”
“But we would also warn that even with the upside risks for Germany, we see the risks to the downside for Eurozone Flash HICP tomorrow.”
Key quotes
“Energy base effects should be the principal driver, but pump prices were still up on the month and may slightly moderate the impact.”
“With the ECB clearly in wait-and-see mode into year-end with TLTROs and the AQR to come, this small surprise should do nothing to change the policy biases, and we are cautious about our upside risk as inflation surprises have been absent for quite some time.”
“But we would also warn that even with the upside risks for Germany, we see the risks to the downside for Eurozone Flash HICP tomorrow.”